Home Celebrities Trends 2026 2

5 Critical Reasons Why Not Everyone Will Get A Pay Rise In 2025 (And Who Will See The Biggest Gains)

• minute read
Contents
As of late 2025, the short answer to whether everyone will get a pay rise is a definitive no, but the compensation outlook remains complexly positive for many. Global salary increase budgets are trending upward compared to pre-pandemic norms, yet the universal, inflation-beating raise that many employees hoped for remains elusive, driven by moderating inflation, a cooling labor market, and a significant shift toward performance-based compensation models. The reality is that the size and even the existence of a pay increase in 2025 will depend heavily on your country, industry, and individual contribution. The current economic landscape shows a clear deceleration in the pace of wage growth compared to the peak years of 2023 and 2024, but this slowdown is often paired with lower inflation rates, leading to a stabilization of real wage growth for the first time in several years across many OECD countries. This in-depth analysis breaks down the key compensation trends for 2025, revealing the critical factors that will determine who gets a raise and who gets left behind.

The Global Salary Increase Forecast for 2025: A Tale of Deceleration and Disparity

The overall picture for salary increase budgets in 2025 is one of moderation. While the figures are still healthy, they are not as aggressive as the post-pandemic surges. This trend is a direct result of central banks successfully tackling persistent inflation and the subsequent easing of pressure in the labor market.

Global and Major Economy Projections: The New Normal

Data from major compensation consulting firms like WTW and World at Work indicates a clear stabilization in salary planning.
  • Global Average: The average global salary increase is projected to be around 4.5% in 2025. Crucially, this is set against a projected global inflation rate of 2.6%, meaning the median real wage growth is positive, stabilizing at approximately 1.7% across the world.
  • United States (US): US organizations are projecting mean salary increase budgets of 3.7% to 3.8% for 2025, a slight dip from the 2024 budgets. This indicates a cooling but still competitive labor market.
  • United Kingdom (UK): UK employers are forecasting an average salary increase of 3.9% for 2025, a decline from the 4.3% seen in 2024. The UK’s real salary increase remains notably low at just 0.4%, placing it behind many other European countries.
  • Euro Area: Negotiated wage growth in the Euro Area is expected to decelerate from 3.9% in 2025 to a lower figure in 2026, reflecting the broader European Central Bank (ECB) efforts to manage inflation.
  • Minimum Wage Impact: Government-mandated increases, such as the UK’s National Living Wage rising to £12.21 per hour as of April 2025, guarantee a raise for the lowest-paid workers, but these statutory increases do not extend to the entire workforce.
The key takeaway is that while the *average* company is allocating funds for raises, the budget is tighter, making a blanket raise for *every* employee unlikely.

The Shift to Performance-Based Compensation: The End of the Automatic Raise

One of the most significant compensation trends shaping 2025 is the pivot away from general cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) and toward highly differentiated, performance-based compensation. This trend is the primary reason why a universal raise is a myth.

Why Your Raise is Now a Performance Metric

In 2025, a higher percentage of the total salary increase budget is being allocated to top performers, creating a stark divide between the rewards for high and average contributors. * Merit-Driven Pay: More companies are adopting models that tie a significant portion of the increase directly to an employee's specific skills, abilities, and measurable outcomes, rather than just their job title. This focus on pay for performance means that employees who meet or exceed key performance indicators (KPIs) will see substantial increases, while those who merely "meet expectations" may receive a minimal raise that barely keeps pace with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), or none at all. * Pay Transparency: The rise of pay transparency laws and internal policies in regions like the US and Europe is forcing organizations to justify pay decisions more rigorously. This transparency makes it harder for companies to hide low raises for low performers, but it also necessitates a clear link between individual performance and pay, solidifying the merit-based approach. * Skill-Based Pay: There is a growing shift toward rewarding niche, high-demand skills—especially those related to digital transformation and Artificial Intelligence (AI)—even within non-tech roles. This means an employee who upskills in data analytics or Generative AI may receive a higher raise than a long-tenured colleague who has not.

Sector-Specific Salary Winners and Losers in 2025

The industry you work in is a major determinant of your 2025 pay rise prospects. While the general economy cools, specific sectors are experiencing intense demand for talent, driving up compensation packages.

The High-Growth Sectors

The strongest wage growth is concentrated in industries undergoing rapid technological or regulatory change, creating a fierce competition for specialized talent. * Healthcare Industry: Driven by demographic shifts and continued post-pandemic demand, the healthcare industry (including roles in nursing, specialized medical technology, and administration) is projected to continue its positive growth trajectory. * Tech in Manufacturing: A surprising standout is the Manufacturing sector, which is heavily investing in automation and digitalization. Tech professionals working in manufacturing saw a significant salary increase of over 15% in recent data, highlighting the premium placed on skills that bridge the gap between physical production and digital systems. * AI and Data Roles: Companies that extensively utilize AI and advanced technology tend to be larger, more productive, and pay higher wages to their employees. Roles directly involved in AI development, machine learning, and cybersecurity are among the most insulated from the overall market slowdown.

The Moderating Sectors

Sectors that experienced massive growth during the pandemic or are highly sensitive to interest rates are seeing a more significant slowdown in wage growth. * Traditional Finance: While specialized roles in FinTech remain strong, traditional banking and finance may see more modest increases as the sector adapts to new regulatory and economic pressures. * Non-Specialized IT: General IT roles, particularly those where tasks are susceptible to automation (like basic data entry or routine IT support), may see their wage growth moderate as companies leverage AI tools to increase productivity. Exposure to automative AI, in some cases, has been shown to reduce wages.

The Bottom Line: Your Pay Rise is Not Guaranteed

In summary, the notion that everyone gets a pay rise in 2025 is a misconception. While the global average suggests a positive year for compensation trends, the reality is highly segmented. The International Labour Organization (ILO) and other economic bodies confirm that while real wages are generally recovering from the inflation crisis, the recovery is uneven. Your raise in 2025 is less a function of a rising tide lifting all boats and more a direct reflection of your individual value to your employer. The keys to securing a significant pay increase are: 1. Exceptional Performance: Being a top performer is the single most important factor in a merit-driven environment. 2. High-Demand Skills: Possessing skills in AI, healthcare technology, or other specialized areas. 3. Sector Alignment: Working in a high-growth sector like Healthcare or Tech-Enabled Manufacturing. For those who do not meet these criteria, the 2025 pay rise may be minimal, or non-existent, as companies prioritize strategic investment in top talent and specialized roles over universal increases.
5 Critical Reasons Why Not Everyone Will Get a Pay Rise in 2025 (And Who Will See the Biggest Gains)
Does everyone get a pay rise in 2025?
Does everyone get a pay rise in 2025?

Detail Author:

  • Name : Filiberto Schultz
  • Username : gmertz
  • Email : zwuckert@bergnaum.com
  • Birthdate : 1971-09-27
  • Address : 8216 Jessyca Mount Suite 121 Runteton, CA 63300
  • Phone : 440.492.5665
  • Company : Rodriguez-Medhurst
  • Job : Production Planning
  • Bio : Occaecati facere est voluptatibus quia tempora rerum asperiores enim. Odit odit asperiores ut omnis. Cum excepturi reiciendis eos et aut consequuntur quis.

Socials

facebook:

linkedin:

tiktok:

Random Posts