The Looming Retirement Crisis: 5 Facts On Why The State Pension Age Could Rise To 70 Sooner Than You Think
The Current State Pension Age Timetable: 66, 67, and 68
Understanding the current, legally binding timetable is the essential starting point before considering a rise to 70. The State Pension age has been undergoing a series of increases since 2010 to equalise the age for men and women and then to increase it further for all.
- Current SPA: The State Pension age currently sits at 66 for both men and women.
- Stage 2 Rise (66 to 67): The SPA is legislated to increase from 66 to 67 between 2026 and 2028.
- Stage 3 Rise (67 to 68): Under the current law (Pensions Act 2014), the SPA is set to rise from 67 to 68 between 2044 and 2046.
However, the 2017 Cridland Review recommended accelerating the rise to 68 by seven years, bringing it forward to 2037–2039. While the government initially considered this acceleration, the timetable for the rise to 68 was ultimately kept under review—a decision that has now intensified the focus on the next major milestone: 70.
5 Critical Factors Driving the State Pension Age Towards 70
The push for a State Pension age of 70 is not a political whim; it is a mathematical necessity driven by five powerful demographic and economic forces. These factors are the central focus of the ongoing government reviews.
1. The July 2025 Review and the '10-Year Rule'
The most immediate and relevant update is the launch of the third statutory review of the State Pension age in July 2025. These reviews, mandated by the Pensions Act 2014, occur at least once every five years and are crucial for determining future changes.
A core principle guiding these decisions is the government's commitment to the '10-year notice' rule. This means any person affected by a change in the SPA must be given at least 10 years' notice to plan their retirement effectively. Furthermore, the reviews are guided by the principle that people should spend a specific proportion of their adult life in retirement, often benchmarked against a target of around one-third of adult life, or ensuring a minimum of 10 years in retirement.
As life expectancy continues to rise (albeit at a slower pace than previously forecast), maintaining that 10-year retirement period while keeping the system affordable inevitably pushes the State Pension age higher. The 2025 review will use the latest data from the Government Actuary's Department (GAD) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to model the exact age required to meet this target.
2. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Forecast
Perhaps the most compelling evidence for a rise to 70 comes from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK's independent fiscal watchdog. The OBR has explicitly forecast that, based on current trajectories and the need to maintain the financial stability of the system, the State Pension age would need to reach 70 by the mid-2040s.
This projection is a stark warning. To avoid excessive expenditure on State Pensions—which the OBR monitors closely—the age must be increased significantly. If the government were to accelerate the rise to 68 and then continue the trajectory required to meet the '10-year rule', 70 becomes the next logical and necessary step within the next two decades.
3. Demographic Pressure: The Dependency Ratio
The fundamental economic driver is the UK’s ageing population. The dependency ratio—the number of people of State Pension age compared to the number of people of working age—is increasing rapidly.
In simple terms, fewer working-age people are contributing the National Insurance payments required to fund a growing number of retirees who are living longer. To maintain the system's affordability and prevent the State Pension from consuming an unsustainably large share of the national income (GDP), the government must either increase the working population or increase the working years of the existing population. Raising the SPA to 70 is the most direct way to achieve the latter, shifting millions of people from the 'dependent' column to the 'contributing' column.
4. The Cost of the Triple Lock
The existence of the Triple Lock—the mechanism that ensures the State Pension increases by the highest of inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5%—significantly exacerbates the pressure to raise the SPA.
While the Triple Lock provides vital protection for pensioners against the cost of living, it is extremely expensive for the Treasury. The commitment to maintaining the Triple Lock makes the overall pension budget grow faster than it otherwise would. Economists argue that to afford the Triple Lock in the long term, the government has little choice but to offset the rising cost by raising the retirement age. Without this mechanism, the pressure to reach 70 would be lower, but with it, the financial imperative is much stronger.
5. The Social Fairness Debate and Regional Disparity
The most significant counter-argument to a rise to 70 is one of social fairness. While national life expectancy figures are the basis for the SPA calculation, these statistics mask huge regional and socio-economic disparities.
For individuals in the most deprived areas, life expectancy can be significantly lower than the national average. Raising the SPA to 70 disproportionately affects these groups, forcing them to work longer only to receive their State Pension for a shorter period, or not at all. The 2025 review will have to grapple with this ethical challenge, as previous reviews have highlighted that a single, uniform SPA is inherently unfair to those in more deprived areas who cannot work for longer due to health issues.
Planning for a State Pension Age of 70: Key Takeaways
For anyone under the age of 55, planning for a State Pension age of 70 is now a prudent, if not essential, step. The government's July 2025 review will set the stage for the next phase of increases, likely accelerating the move to 68 and opening the door to the eventual rise to 70.
The entities involved in this decision—the GAD, OBR, and ONS—are all aligned on the underlying demographic reality: the UK cannot afford the current system without significant reform. While the final decision will be political, the economic numbers point to a clear trajectory. You should consider the following in your financial planning:
- Review Your Private Pensions: Do not rely solely on the State Pension. Increase contributions to your workplace or personal pensions to build a retirement pot that allows you to retire on your own terms, regardless of the SPA.
- Check Your National Insurance (NI) Record: Ensure you have the necessary 35 qualifying years of NI contributions to receive the full State Pension when you eventually claim it.
- Assume a Later Retirement: For younger generations, base your financial models on a retirement age of 68, and ideally 70, to avoid a shortfall later in life.
The movement toward a State Pension age of 70 is a slow-motion change, but the wheels are turning faster than many realise. The July 2025 review will be the next major indicator of how quickly this reality will arrive.
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